What happened
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released October purchasing managers’ index data showing that the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, down from expansion territory, while the construction industry activity index dropped to 48.0. The non-manufacturing purchasing managers index fell 0.5 points to 49.7 from 50.2 in September. Both indexes use 50 as the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Within manufacturing, the production index stood at 49.8, new orders at 49.4, and new export orders at 48.7. In the services sector, the business activity index was exactly 50.0, its lowest level in three months, while new orders, sales prices, and employment all registered below 50.
Analysts cited by The Epoch Times said the readings indicate insufficient domestic demand, weakening external demand, and sluggish investment. Sun Kuo-hsiang, a professor at Nanhua University in Taiwan, said the slowdown is spreading beyond real estate into manufacturing, services, and construction. Frank Xie, a professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken’s School of Business, described the manufacturing outlook as bleak.
The report also noted that average spending during the early October Golden Week holiday fell to its lowest level since 2022, down 1.9 percent year-on-year to 893.92 yuan. Independent research firms including Rhodium Group and Capital Economics have questioned China’s official GDP figures, with Rhodium estimating full-year growth near zero percent and Capital Economics putting third-quarter growth at 2 percent.
