What happened
Electricity prices in Estonia experienced significant volatility in September, with average prices ranging from below €10 to above €150 per megawatt-hour. The average price for the month was €74.85 per megawatt-hour, lower than the previous two years. Experts attribute the price fluctuations to maintenance works in the electricity system, wind conditions, and the gas market.
According to Kalvi Nõu, head of energy trading at Alexela, the maintenance of the NordBalt connection and Finnish nuclear plants, as well as low wind conditions, contributed to the price increases. Tiit Hõbejõgi, member of the management board of Enefit, noted that approximately 50% of Baltic September consumption was covered by local wind and solar energy, leading to low prices during windy and sunny weather.
The price decrease compared to previous Septembers was also attributed to new renewable-energy capacities and storage. Nõu and Hõbejõgi agreed that the growth of wind-energy production in the Baltic states and the addition of solar parks and batteries have helped reduce price differences between expensive and cheap hours.
Looking ahead to October, experts predict that weather conditions and the gas market will play a significant role in determining electricity prices. The wholesale market currently prices October 10-15% more expensive than last year's October, but Nõu and Hõbejõgi caution that actual prices may be lower due to favorable wind conditions and increased renewable-energy production.
