What happened
Iran is employing a strategy of exhaustion against the United States, seeking to wear down the US through prolonged conflict and economic pressure. This approach is exemplified by the recent threats made by Mohammad Zolghadr, an adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened until certain conditions are met.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade and sanctions. However, experts warn that negotiating with Iran solely over the symptom of the Hormuz closure, without addressing the underlying machinery of bounties, proxy attacks, and external operations, risks exchanging today's crisis for tomorrow's.
The Iranian regime has been targeting American interests and allies in the region, including strikes on bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, as well as attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The regime has also announced a $30,000 reward for killing or capturing an American service member, and has targeted Jews in various countries.
Experts argue that the US should focus on raising the cost of Iran's external operations and Hormuz closure, rather than matching Iran's escalation step for step. This can be achieved through intelligence integration with Israel, targeting the Quds Force and Intelligence Ministry networks, and disrupting Iran's oil smuggling operations.
The US should also prioritize engineering around Iran wherever possible, while squeezing the networks Iran cannot easily replace. Any settlement worth signing should address a verifiable end to bounties and external operations, not just the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
