What happened
Forecasters have warned that this year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, raising the risk of heavy rain and flooding across Kenya. The country’s short rainy season normally runs from October to December, with November typically the peak month.
In Nairobi’s Kibera settlement, residents live beside the Ngong river in homes made of corrugated iron. Agnes Shikoli, 62, said floodwater reached halfway up her wall during the long rainy season earlier this year. Her sister died after her house flooded, and Shikoli said she fears the same fate if intense rains return.
Nairobi County disaster management chief Bramwell Simiyu said drainage systems have been neglected for years and were a major factor in earlier deaths. He estimated that up to 100,000 people in low-income settlements could be at risk in a worst-case scenario, with moderate projections putting about 20,000 people in danger.
Workers under the government’s Climate Worx programme have been clearing rubbish from riverbeds and drains since August. Simiyu said full upgrades to Nairobi’s sewerage and drainage system could cost up to $192 million, but funding is uncertain.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development forecast an 81 percent probability of a very strong El Niño during October to December 2026. The International Organization for Migration has warned that nearly 900,000 people in Kenya could be displaced this year, mostly because of predicted floods.
Neighbouring Somalia also faces risks, with its disaster management agency warning that 1.2 million people could be displaced by extreme weather, including floods and drought.
