The ongoing war in Ukraine has taken a turn for the worse, with the country facing a shortage of funds, lack of air defense, and a blockade from the sea. Despite earlier reports of Ukraine gaining momentum, the situation has deteriorated, and the country's leaders are acknowledging the severity of their difficulties.
What happened
After months of reported successes, Ukraine's momentum has stalled, and the country is now facing a difficult winter. The US and European partners have restarted attempts at deescalation, but these efforts are likely to fail. A joint initiative by Turkey and the UN to facilitate grain exports is expected to intensify this month.
Ukraine's partners are being urged to start planning for a serious push to end the war in 2027. This would require a different approach than past attempts at brokering peace, including acknowledging that shifts in momentum are temporary and that more time will not improve Ukraine's negotiating position.
The US is being advised to start serious conversations with Moscow and NATO allies about a credible and lasting commitment to no further NATO expansion. Washington should also have a realistic discussion with Ukraine's leaders about the grim prospects if the war continues and work with European partners to create financial and military incentives for Ukraine to reach a deal.
